It Really Worked: Idol Stats Correctly Predicts American Idol Winner

As you might have noticed, Lee DeWyze triumphed over Crystal Bowersox on American Idol this week. We’re sure some people are really excited, and some people are really heartbroken (or whatever), but we know one group of people in particular is pretty thrilled: the people at Biz360, whose Attensity software correctly predicted the winner using social media data, which Biz360 then posted on their blog, Idol Stats.

A few months ago, we wrote about Idol Stats, and at the time we suspected that a correct prediction in the final round (they were off by percents of percents last year) would set off a cataclysmic chain reaction that would permanently and irrevocably alter how record labels marketed and developed pop stars.

So now that it’s happened, what’s next? WMG and EMI obviously aren’t saying anything, but given the highly specific insights that Idol Stats’ people managed to glean from Attensity – Simon Cowell’s influence on the perception of already unpopular contestants, for instance – it’s incredibly likely that pop music’s deployment is about to get even colder and more scientific than it is already.

A little of that cold, hard science would probably go a long way for boutique labels, too – Will metal fans bother to watch their favorite band on Jimmy Fallon? Is anybody under the age of 42 watching Ellen for the musical guests? – but it’s tough to imagine a label like Southern Lord or Cash Money being able to afford Biz360′s services. Maybe the Beggars Group, if everybody pooled their money together, and everybody got to ask one question?

But ultimately, the economics of it are almost secondary. The point is that a musical act’s every move can now be tracked by a label or manager that’s especially mindful of public opinion, and that’s probably going to make pop music a lot weirder.

Tagged as: American Idol, Idol Stats, social media